•1 min read•from TechCrunch
Anthropic’s rise is giving some OpenAI investors second thoughts
Our take
As Anthropic continues to gain traction in the AI landscape, some investors in OpenAI are reevaluating their positions. One investor, who supports both companies, highlighted that justifying OpenAI's recent funding round necessitated an ambitious IPO valuation of $1.2 trillion or more. In contrast, Anthropic's current valuation of $380 billion appears increasingly attractive. This shift prompts a closer examination of the evolving dynamics within the AI sector, underscoring the potential for alternative investments that may offer more favorable returns.
One investor who has backed both companies told the FT that justifying OpenAI's recent round required assuming an IPO valuation of $1.2 trillion or more — making Anthropic's current $380 billion valuation look like the relative bargain.
Read on the original site
Open the publisher's page for the full experience
Related Articles
- Anthropic shrugs off VC funding offers valuing it at $800B+, for nowVCs are frothing at the mouth to write more checks to Anthropic at a valuation that matches or beats OpenAI's.
- Anthropic says it hit a $30 billion revenue run rate after 'crazy' 80x growthDario Amodei is not the kind of CEO who talks loosely about numbers. The Anthropic co-founder and chief executive, a former VP of research at OpenAI with a PhD in computational neuroscience from Princeton, has built a reputation for measured public statements — particularly around the financial performance of a company that, until recently, disclosed almost nothing about its business. So when Amodei took the stage at Anthropic's Code with Claude developer conference on Wednesday and offered a genuinely striking piece of financial candor, the room paid attention. "We tried to plan very well for a world of 10x growth per year," Amodei said during a fireside chat with Anthropic's chief product officer, Ami Vora. "And yet we saw 80x. And so that is the reason we have had difficulties with compute." Anthropic had planned for tenfold growth. But revenue and usage increased 80-fold in the first quarter on an annualized basis, a rate Amodei described as "just crazy" and "too hard to handle." The number demands context. Annualized growth rates can overstate sustained performance — a single strong quarter, extrapolated across a full year, can paint a picture that doesn't hold. Amodei knows this. But the underlying trajectory is not a mirage. Anthropic has crossed a $30 billion annualized revenue run rate, up sharply from roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025, and that growth is being driven largely by enterprise demand. The company's revenue trajectory has been relentless: $87 million run rate in January 2024, $1 billion by December 2024, $9 billion by end of 2025, $14 billion in February 2026, $19 billion in March, and $30 billion in April. For context: Salesforce took about 20 years to reach $30 billion in annual revenue. Anthropic did it in under three years from a standing start. Claude Code became the fastest-growing product in enterprise software history The growth story at Anthropic is, to a remarkable degree, a single-product story. Claude Code, the company's agentic AI coding tool launched publicly in mid-2025, has become the fastest-growing product in the company's history — and, by several measures, one of the fastest-growing software products ever built. Claude Code hit $1 billion in annualized revenue within six months of launch, and the growth hasn't slowed down. By February 2026, the product was generating over $2.5 billion in run-rate revenue. The company also said Claude Code's weekly active users had doubled since January 1 and that business subscriptions had quadrupled since the start of 2026. The mechanics of the product are straightforward. Claude Code is not a chatbot that suggests snippets. It reads a codebase, plans a sequence of actions, executes them using real development tools, evaluates the result, and adjusts its approach. The developer sets the objective and retains control over what gets committed, but the execution loop runs independently. The average developer using Claude Code now spends 20 hours per week working with the tool. At Anthropic itself, the majority of code is now written by Claude Code. Engineers focus on architecture, product thinking, and continuous orchestration: managing multiple agents in parallel, giving direction, and making the decisions that shape what gets built. That last point may be the most revealing detail Amodei disclosed at the conference: this is the first year Anthropic's own internal pull requests have inflected upward due to Claude's work on the company's own codebase. The tool that Anthropic sells to developers is now a material contributor to Anthropic's own engineering output. That creates a feedback loop that is almost impossible for competitors without a comparable product to replicate — the company is using its own product to build the next version of its own product. The enterprise numbers tell the same story. The company now counts over 1,000 enterprise customers spending more than $1 million per year on Claude services, a figure that has doubled since February. Much of this increase has been fueled by a wave of corporate customers including Uber and Netflix. Amodei framed the adoption curve in economic terms. "Software engineers are the ones who are fastest to adopt new technology," he said on stage. "It's a foreshadowing of how things are going to work across the economy, and how the economy is going to be transformed by AI." Anthropic's 80x growth created a compute crisis it couldn't solve alone Hypergrowth creates its own category of problem. When demand outstrips supply by an order of magnitude, the constraint is not go-to-market strategy or product-market fit. The constraint is physics. The company is growing so fast that its infrastructure has struggled to keep up, forcing Anthropic into what may be the most unexpected partnership in the current AI cycle. Amodei's comments came hours after Anthropic announced a deal with Elon Musk's SpaceX to use all of the compute capacity at his company's Colossus 1 data center in Memphis, Tennessee. As part of the agreement, Anthropic will get access to more than 300 megawatts of capacity — over 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, including dense deployments of H100, H200, and next-generation GB200 accelerators. The deal is remarkable for several reasons. Musk has been, until very recently, one of Anthropic's most vocal critics. He has said Anthropic is "doomed to become the opposite of its name" and wrote in February that "Anthropic hates Western Civilization." But on Wednesday, Musk changed his tune, saying he spent a lot of time with senior members of the Anthropic team over the past week and that he was "impressed." "Everyone I met was highly competent and cared a great deal about doing the right thing. No one set off my evil detector," Musk wrote. The strategic logic on both sides is clear. xAI's Colossus 1 ended up with capacity that Grok's user base never grew into, while Anthropic needs compute immediately. Anthropic has been signing deals with Amazon, Google, Nvidia, and Microsoft for more compute capacity, but most of that isn't expected to come online until late 2026 or early 2027. The SpaceX deal gives Anthropic a significant boost now — the key word being "now." As one industry watcher summarized the alignment: "Elon's enemy is Sam. Dario's enemy is Sam. Enemy of my enemy is a compute partner." Last month, Anthropic said demand for Claude has led to "inevitable strain on our infrastructure," which has impacted "reliability and performance" for its users, particularly during peak hours. The company admitted in a postmortem from late April that three bugs had affected Claude Code since March 4, and that internal tests hadn't caught them, leading to several weeks of degraded performance. Amodei said at the Code with Claude conference that the company is "working as quickly as possible to provide more" capacity and will "pass that compute on to you as soon as we can." A near-trillion-dollar valuation makes Anthropic's IPO the most anticipated debut in years The growth figures arrive at a moment when Anthropic's valuation is itself becoming one of the defining financial stories of the AI era. Anthropic has begun weighing a fresh funding round that would value the company at more than $900 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially leapfrogging its longtime rival OpenAI as the world's most valuable AI startup. The velocity of the escalation is difficult to overstate. From $61.5 billion in March 2025, to $183 billion by its Series F in September, to $380 billion in February, to, if the current discussions proceed, more than $900 billion in May. Anthropic's shares were already trading at an implied $1 trillion valuation on secondary markets earlier this month. Instead of cashing out, many existing investors are waiting to potentially exit during Anthropic's anticipated IPO later this year. The company is raising what is likely to be its last private round before going public to fund its massive computing needs. Bloomberg has reported that the company is weighing an IPO as early as October 2026, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley already in early discussions. Anthropic is also building out infrastructure on longer time horizons. Amazon has agreed to invest up to $25 billion in Anthropic, securing up to 5 gigawatts of compute capacity for training and deploying Claude models. Anthropic also secured 5 gigawatts of computing capacity as part of a separate deal with Google and Broadcom that will start to come online next year. The total commitment is staggering — tens of gigawatts of compute across three separate hardware ecosystems: Amazon's Trainium chips, Google's TPUs via Broadcom, and Nvidia GPUs through SpaceX and Microsoft Azure. For perspective: Anthropic's $30 billion run rate exceeds the trailing twelve-month revenues of all but approximately 130 S&P 500 companies. A company that was essentially pre-revenue in early 2024 now out-earns most of the Fortune 500. That comparison comes with caveats. Private-market revenue run rate is not the same thing as audited GAAP revenue, gross margin, free cash flow, or public float. OpenAI has internally argued that Anthropic's $30 billion figure is overstated by roughly $8 billion, pointing to questions about whether revenues from AWS and Google Cloud should be reported at gross value or net of the partner's cut. The accounting question will ultimately be resolved when both companies file IPO prospectuses — but even on a net basis, Anthropic's growth rate is unlike anything in enterprise software history. Dario Amodei's vision for AI extends far beyond coding — and he's given himself a deadline The financial story — 80x growth, a near-trillion-dollar valuation, a scramble to secure enough GPUs to meet demand — is dramatic on its own terms. But Amodei used his time on stage to place it inside a larger thesis about where AI is headed. He described a progression from single agents to multiple agents to what he called whole organizational intelligence — from "a team of smart people in a room" to "a country of geniuses in the data center." The framing is deliberately expansive. What Anthropic is selling today is a coding tool. What Amodei is describing is a future in which entire categories of knowledge work are performed by fleets of AI agents operating in parallel, supervised by humans who define objectives and review outputs. He reiterated a prediction he made roughly a year ago: that 2026 would see the first billion-dollar company run entirely by a single person. "Hasn't quite happened yet," he said. "But we've got seven more months." The company has also been navigating political headwinds. The Pentagon declared Anthropic a supply chain risk in March, blacklisting it from work with the military. The company has warned the designation could result in billions in lost revenue, with over one hundred enterprise customers reportedly expressing doubts about continuing their relationships. And yet — as that scuffle makes its way through the legal system, Anthropic is only getting more popular. Amodei said this week he's eventually hoping for "more normal" expansion. There is a temptation, when covering a company growing at this rate, to let the numbers speak for themselves. They shouldn't. Growth at 80x annualized is not a business plan — it's an emergency. It means demand has outrun infrastructure, that customers want something the company cannot yet reliably deliver at scale, and that every week of constrained capacity is a week during which competitors can close the gap. The investors funding Anthropic — including SoftBank, Amazon, Nvidia, Google, a16z, Lightspeed, and ICONIQ — are making a specific bet: that compute costs continue to fall per unit of intelligence, that revenue keeps compounding faster than burn, and that whoever owns the AI infrastructure layer in 2029 will generate returns that make the interim losses irrelevant. Amodei's candor at Code with Claude was not a victory lap. It was a diagnostic — an admission that his company is running faster than it can steer. He planned for a world of 10x growth and got 80x instead. Now he has seven months to prove that the infrastructure, the organization, and the vision can catch up to the demand. The country of geniuses in the data center is getting crowded. The question is whether anyone remembered to build enough rooms.
- Sources: Anthropic potential $900B+ valuation round could happen within 2 weeksAnthropic is asking investors to submit allocations for the AI company’s latest fundraise within the next 48 hours, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Tagged with
#Anthropic#OpenAI#investor#IPO valuation#valuation#$1.2 trillion#$380 billion#trillion#bargain#backed#FT#recent round#assumptions#market comparison#funding#financing#valuation metrics#investment strategy#technology sector#capital raising