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When the Uncertainty Is Bigger Than the Shock: Scenario Modelling for English Local Elections
Our take
In "When the Uncertainty Is Bigger Than the Shock: Scenario Modelling for English Local Elections," we delve into the complexities of scenario analysis and the significance of calibrated uncertainty. This case study highlights how historical error can inform more effective modeling approaches, emphasizing that some predictive tools gain value by resisting the urge to forecast. By exploring these dynamics, we invite readers to rethink traditional methods and discover how a nuanced understanding of uncertainty can enhance decision-making in local elections.
A scenario analysis case study on calibrated uncertainty, historical error, and why some models are most useful when they refuse to forecast.
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