synthetic control

Choosing the Right Causal Model When Truth Is Unseen

Causal inference models carry a hidden risk: you can never see the true effect, yet you still have to pick one. This simulation makes that tension concrete. Difference-in-differences overestimated a 10% impact by more than double, while synthetic control landed far closer. The fix isn't a better algorithm, it's a placebo test. Running an A/A check on pre-treatment data exposes which model carries the least error before you trust it in the wild. That workflow, not any single method, is the durable lesson.